BIT 2406: Intro to Business Statistics, Analytics, and Modeling

Blue Ridge Summer League

Formulation, Structural Analysis, and AI Evaluation in Optimization Modeling

You have been hired as the scheduling analyst for the Blue Ridge Summer League. The league commissioner needs a schedule that is fair, compact, and accounts for team rest. Your job is to build the optimization model, evaluate whether AI tools can replicate your work, and redesign the model under new league priorities.

This project is designed as a multi-phase decision-modeling exercise. Across the semester, you will move from baseline model construction to model extension, AI-assisted evaluation, and structural redesign under changing managerial priorities. The purpose of the project is not only to practice optimization techniques, but also to develop the ability to explain, evaluate, and defend modeling choices in a realistic decision context.

You will:

  1. Formulate and solve a constrained integer programming model.
  2. Extend the model to incorporate schedule quality considerations.
  3. Evaluate AI-generated formulations of the same problem.
  4. Redesign the model under a changed league priority.
  5. Analyze how structural changes affect feasibility, optimality, and model robustness.

The objective is not merely to construct a feasible schedule. Rather, the project is designed to examine how modeling decisions, constraint interaction, objective selection, and managerial priorities influence optimization behavior. Later phases explicitly evaluate the reliability and limitations of AI-generated optimization models.

All models must be implemented in Microsoft Excel using Solver and must remain within the 200 decision variable limit and 100 constraint limit of the standard Solver configuration.


Problem setting

Participating teams

Scheduling horizon

Scheduling rules

Facilities and time slots are not explicitly modeled. The schedule is formulated at the day level.

Before solving, you should verify several implied bounds:

Failure to verify these structural bounds often leads to infeasible or logically inconsistent models.


Worked mini-example

To verify your understanding of the variable structure, consider a simplified version of the problem.

Setup: 2 teams (A, B), 3 days, at most 1 game per day, and the pair must play at least 1 and at most 2 games.

The single decision variable for each day is:

  Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
A vs B $x_1$ $x_2$ $x_3$

where $x_d \in \{0, 1\}$ indicates whether the pair plays on day $d$.

Valid schedule: $x_1 = 1, x_2 = 0, x_3 = 1$

Infeasible schedule: $x_1 = 1, x_2 = 1, x_3 = 1$

In the full problem, you will have 6 pairs and 10 days. The variable structure scales accordingly.


Timeline (Weeks 9–16)

Week Phase Deliverable
Week 9 Phase 1 Baseline formulation
Week 10 Phase 2 Schedule quality and constraint interaction
Week 11 Feedback and review Instructor feedback on Phases 1–2; prepare for AI evaluation
Week 12 Phase 3 AI-assisted formulation, equivalence, and model responsibility
Week 13 Phase 4a Structural redesign under a new league priority
Week 14 Phase 4b AI redesign evaluation and comparative analysis
Week 15 Final reflection Synthesis

Phase 1: Baseline formulation (25 points)

In this phase, you will build a baseline scheduling model for the Blue Ridge Summer League. The goal is to translate the league’s basic rules and requirements into a workable optimization model.

This phase establishes the foundation for the rest of the project. Your objective is not only to produce a correct baseline formulation, but also to begin thinking carefully about what the model includes, what it leaves out, and what assumptions make the formulation possible.

Objective

Maximize the total number of games scheduled over the 10-day horizon.

Required constraints

Your model must enforce:

  1. Daily capacity limits.
  2. At most one game per team per day.
  3. Each pair of teams plays at least 2 games and at most 3 games over the full horizon.

Implementation guidance

Checkpoint

Submission requirements

Phase 1 rubric (25 points)


Phase 2: Schedule quality and constraint interaction (45 points)

In Phase 2, you will extend your baseline model to account for schedule quality through rest considerations. The goal is to move beyond simple feasibility and begin evaluating what makes a schedule more desirable from a managerial perspective.

This phase asks you to examine the tradeoff between schedule quantity and schedule quality. In doing so, you should begin to think not only about how to modify the model, but also about what values your formulation is prioritizing.

All Phase 1 constraints remain in force.

Objective

Minimize total rest violations.

A rest violation occurs when a team is scheduled to play on two consecutive days (i.e., day $t$ and day $t+1$). Each such occurrence counts as one violation.

Note: A team can play at most one game per day, so a rest violation only depends on whether the team plays on adjacent days, not on the number of games.

Hint: In addition to the Phase 1 constraints, you will need to introduce new variables and constraints to track when a team plays on consecutive days.

This typically requires:

These variables must be properly linked so that a rest violation is counted if and only if a team plays on both day $t$ and day $t+1$.

Modeling expectations

You should explicitly consider:

Superficial rest-counting approaches without correct logical linkage will receive reduced credit.

Checkpoint

Submission requirements

Solver limits and alternatives

A fully correct linearization of the Phase 2 model will likely exceed Excel Solver’s 200-variable and 100-constraint limits. You have two paths:

You are not required to pursue either path. If your model hits the solver limit, document what happened and reflect on the trade-off between model form, solver choice, and solution quality.

Phase 2 rubric (45 points)


Transition to the second half of the project

By the end of Phase 2, you have already constructed and extended a workable scheduling model. The second half of the project shifts the focus from model construction alone to model evaluation, model responsibility, and model redesign.

In Phase 3, you will examine whether a publicly available AI system can meaningfully reproduce the structure and logic of your model. In Phase 4, you will redesign the model under a changed league priority and evaluate how that shift alters the tradeoffs and recommendations. Across both phases, the goal is not merely to obtain a feasible model, but to determine which model version you are willing to defend and why.


Phase 3: AI-assisted formulation, equivalence, and model responsibility (50 points)

In Phase 2, you extended your model to account for schedule quality through rest considerations. In this phase, you will examine whether a publicly available AI system can produce a formulation that is equivalent to, or meaningfully different from, your Phase 2 model.

The purpose of this phase is not simply to show that AI makes mistakes. In some cases, the AI-generated model may be largely correct. Your task is to determine whether the AI-generated formulation is truly equivalent to your Phase 2 model, whether it is preferable in any meaningful way, and which version you are ultimately willing to defend.

Required steps

  1. Include the exact prompt used and the name of the AI system and model version.
  2. Prompt a publicly available AI system to formulate the Phase 2 problem.
  3. Implement the AI-generated model exactly as generated.
  4. Attempt to solve the AI-generated model before making any corrections.
  5. Compare your Phase 2 model, the AI-generated model, and your final responsible model.

Do not correct the AI-generated model before analyzing it.

Note on linearity and solver compatibility: Your prompt to the AI must explicitly require a linear formulation. AI tools often produce nonlinear formulations (e.g., products of binary variables) that are incompatible with Excel Solver’s Simplex LP method. If the AI-generated model is nonlinear despite your instruction, revise your prompt until a linear formulation is obtained. If the resulting linear model exceeds Excel Solver’s 200-variable or 100-constraint limit, use LibreOffice Calc’s solver, which supports larger models and provides a spreadsheet experience similar to Excel. You are also encouraged to use AI to generate scaffolding code to solve the model with other solvers such as PuLP.

Your analysis should address

Use the following comparison structure:

Dimension Your Phase 2 Model AI-Generated Model Final Responsible Model
Decision variables      
Objective function      
Constraint structure      
Logical correctness      
Solver feasibility      
200-variable limit compliance      
100-constraint limit compliance      
Interpretability / compactness      
Extensibility for future redesign      
Which version you would defend and why      

A strong submission does not require the AI-generated model to be wrong. High-quality work may show that the AI-generated model is largely correct, while still carefully comparing formulation quality, assumptions, interpretability, and defensibility across versions.

Required reflection

Briefly address the following:

  1. Which AI suggestions, if any, would you keep?
  2. Which AI suggestions would you reject?
  3. If both models are technically valid, why would you still prefer one over the other?
  4. If your judgment is wrong, what is the most likely downstream consequence for the league?

Submission requirements

Phase 3 rubric (50 points)

Criterion Points
Accurate implementation of the AI-generated model 5
Evaluation of correctness and equivalence 10
Quality of comparison across model versions 10
Analysis of formulation quality, interpretability, and extensibility 10
Evidence of model ownership and responsible judgment 10
Clarity, specificity, and supporting evidence 5
Total 50

Phase 4: Structural redesign under a new league priority (60 points)

In this phase, the league commissioner has introduced a new managerial priority. Your task is not simply to add another constraint. Instead, you must redesign the model so that it reflects a meaningful change in what the league values.

The purpose of this phase is to evaluate your ability to revise a model when managerial priorities shift, and to assess whether AI can meaningfully support that redesign. A strong redesign should do more than make the model more complicated. It should make clear what value is being protected, what tradeoff is being introduced, and what new limitations arise.

Structural redesign

Select one substantive structural redesign that reflects a realistic new league priority. Examples include, but are not limited to:

Merely changing numerical parameter values does not count as a structural redesign.

Required steps

  1. Select and justify one new league priority.
  2. Redesign and solve your extended model.
  3. Compare the redesigned model with your earlier model.
  4. Prompt AI to formulate the redesigned problem. Include the exact prompt used and the name of the AI system and model version.
  5. Implement the AI-generated redesign.
  6. Compare your redesign with the AI-generated redesign.
  7. Provide a final recommendation to the league commissioner under the new priority.

Note on linearity and solver compatibility: Your prompt to the AI must explicitly require a linear formulation. AI tools often produce nonlinear formulations (e.g., products of binary variables) that are incompatible with Excel Solver’s Simplex LP method. If the AI-generated redesign is nonlinear despite your instruction, revise your prompt until a linear formulation is obtained. If the resulting linear model exceeds Excel Solver’s 200-variable or 100-constraint limit, use LibreOffice Calc’s solver, which supports larger models and provides a spreadsheet experience similar to Excel. You are also encouraged to use AI to generate scaffolding code to solve the model with other solvers such as PuLP.

Your analysis should address

A strong submission will focus not only on technical changes, but also on the managerial consequences of the redesign.

Executive recommendation

Write a short executive recommendation (200–300 words) to the league commissioner that addresses:

Submission requirements

Phase 4 rubric (60 points)

Criterion Points
Quality and justification of the structural redesign 15
Correctness of the redesigned formulation 10
Analysis of tradeoffs and managerial consequences 10
Evaluation of the AI-generated redesign 10
Comparison of defensibility, interpretability, and extensibility across redesigns 10
Clarity, organization, and supporting evidence 5
Total 60

Final reflection (20 points)

Maximum length: 1 page.

This reflection should synthesize your per-phase observations into broader insights. Revisit your brief reflections from Phases 1–4 and address:

  1. Under what conditions does an optimization model become structurally fragile?
  2. Which types of constraints most significantly increase modeling complexity?
  3. In what contexts is AI assistance appropriate in optimization modeling, and where is independent formulation preferable?
  4. What did you learn about the relationship between formulation detail and Solver behavior?

Your responses must reference specific experiences from the project. General statements without connection to your modeling work will receive reduced credit.

Final reflection rubric (20 points)


Grading summary

Component Points
Phase 1 25
Phase 2 45
Phase 3 50
Phase 4 60
Final reflection 20
Total 200

Evaluation standards

This project assesses:

There is no requirement that AI must fail.

There is an expectation that you can explain how structural complexity, modeling assumptions, and changing priorities alter feasibility, optimality, and model robustness.